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TS Lombard is a globally renowned independent research provider with a formidable 30 year track record in providing actionable investment ideas driven by unique understanding of economics, politics and markets. Our economic and political analysis drives our asset allocation recommendations which are both strategic and tactical. We also provide thematic equity calls through TS Lombard Research Partners. TS Lombard was formed through the merger of Lombard Street Research and Trusted Sources in August 2016. The merger has brought together two of the leading, and longest established, IRPs to create a unique offering combining best-in-breed macroeconomic forecasting and political and policy analysis. The group has a team of 25 analysts and strategists across offices in London, New York, Hong Kong, Beijing, Sao Paulo and New Delhi.

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Through our analysis of the forces that drive economics at the global, regional and country level, we have a joined-up picture of the world economy and a deeper understanding of the countries that investors care about. This gives us a unique perspective that allows us to present courageous, fresh, long-term thinking and forecasting with high conviction.

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POLITICS

With political drivers and government policy playing an increasingly significant role in determining economic and market outcomes, our world-wide team of political analysts are able to provide critical, timely insights into political shocks and policy developments that will influence investment performance – both regionally and globally.

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Using the wealth of macro economic, policy, and global political insight at our disposal, our team of strategists are able to provide actionable, unbiased advice on asset allocation, investment positioning and portfolio risk management.

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04 Apr 2019 - Bo Zhuang

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Markets

  • Infrastructure investment will lead government stimulus efforts
  • But a run of negative economic figures is likely before such fiscal stimulus kicks in
  • After a strong performance in Q1/19, equities appear fully valued

Economics

  • PPI decline will weigh on profits and investment
  • 2019 will be another record year for corporate defaults
  • Nominal GDP growth below 7% will trigger a strong policy response

Politics

  • Structural reforms will be resisted
  • Communist Party stresses political security
  • Anti-corruption campaign takes on new dimension

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With monetary policy running out of ideas about how to revive nominal GDP, the debate is moving decisively towards fiscal activism. This retraces a long ‘supercycle’ in macro policy that started in the 1920s. Fiscal ‘solutions’ seem inevitable after the next recession. The only question is how far they will dilute central-bank independence.

 


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  • 3m-10y inversion always precedes a recession
  • S&P sectoral performance tends to switch to safety upon inversion: we go long a safe basket vs short a growth basket
  • We also take profit on our long October fed funds future as market now discounts high chance of a cut this year

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We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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